Mar 20, 2026 by Matt Nichol
The tone at this year’s Global Food Forum was clear. Conditions are tightening, and pressure is building across every part of the supply chain.
From retailers through to farmers and hospitality operators, the same themes kept surfacing. Demand is shifting, costs are rising, and supply is becoming less certain. For Australian food & beverage manufacturers, these aren’t distant signals. They are already showing up in day-to-day operations.
Woolworths Group CEO Amanda Bardwell shared one of the most telling insights from the forum:
"Shopper sentiment is … really starting to see a significant downturn… the level that we’ve seen now is very substantial. And it is not just against last year, it is in the last month.”
This is not the usual post-holiday slowdown. The decline is sharper and happening more quickly than most businesses would plan for.
Households are adjusting to higher interest rates and rising fuel costs at the same time. That combination is changing how and where people spend.
Expect more variability. Product mix will shift. Promotions will matter more. Forecasts will be tested more often.
For manufacturers, the challenge is not just keeping up with demand changes. It is doing it without introducing errors when things move quickly.
The forum made it clear that cost increases are not isolated to one area. They are stacking up across transport, energy, labour and finance.
Neil Perry put it plainly from a hospitality perspective:
"People will decide not to eat out.”
He also pointed to where this is heading: “The price of a cup of coffee could hit $12 within five years.”
When consumers pull back, the impact flows upstream quickly. Manufacturers feel it through reduced volumes, tighter margins and increased pricing pressure from retail partners.
There are fewer levers left to pull. Efficiency becomes critical. Waste, rework and avoidable downtime stand out more than ever because they are some of the only areas fully within your control.
This is where strong process discipline on the line makes a real difference. Small errors carry a bigger cost in this environment.
The Iran conflict and fuel concerns dominated much of the discussion. But some of the most direct warnings came from agriculture – particularly around fertiliser supply.
Hamish McIntyre, President of the National Farmers’ Federation, was very clear:
"We need a lot of urea to go in May [and] June underneath our summer crops, and our suppliers are not even quoting for us a price because they've got no idea and can't guarantee any supply. We are more concerned about fertiliser than fuel.”
Agriculture Minister Julie Collins reinforced the timeline:
"There is enough… to deal with initial planting, but by … late May, June, there starts to be an issue if we don’t get more supplies in.”
The crops in question include cotton, corn and sorghum. For many manufacturers, those are core inputs.This is not a long-term scenario. It is a potential supply gap only months away.
Most manufacturers have a reasonable view of their direct suppliers. Beyond that, the picture becomes less clear.This is exactly the type of disruption that exposes gaps in traceability and planning.
Cotton ready for harvesting, Oakey, Queensland
Now is the time to have direct conversations with suppliers about what May and June look like. Understand where exposure sits and how substitutions would be managed.
If your traceability only goes one tier deep, it is worth addressing before pressure builds further. Ingredient changes bring labelling, compliance and production risks with them.
Geopolitical instability is no longer something that sits in the background. It is directly affecting how goods move and what they cost.
Infrastructure Minister Catherine King summarised the situation:
"Geopolitical instability can disrupt international trade routes and transport networks. This has affected shipping routes and aviation operations across the region.”
This is already flowing through into freight delays, higher transport costs and uncertainty around supply timing.
Disruptions will happen with less notice. Plans will change more often. The ability to respond quickly becomes a practical advantage, not a strategic concept.
That includes updating production schedules, managing product changes and keeping compliance intact while things shift.
There was a strong push at the forum for better coordination between industry and government. Many pointed back to the structured approach used during COVID as a model worth revisiting.
Woolworths Group CEO Amanda Bardwell highlighted the need for that level of alignment again, calling for improved coordination between business and government to manage the challenges ahead.
This reflects a broader reality inside manufacturing businesses as well.
Disconnected systems and manual workarounds slow everything down. When pressure builds, that lag becomes a real risk.
Clear, aligned data across systems helps teams make faster decisions and reduces the chance of errors when changes are pushed through to the line.
The key message coming out of the Global Food Forum is straightforward. Conditions are getting harder, and the pace of change is picking up.
Manufacturers will not be able to control fuel prices, interest rates or global conflict. What they can control is how their operations respond.
The businesses that stay steady will be the ones with strong visibility, tight processes and the ability to act quickly without losing control.
That is what will separate reacting from operating with confidence.
